By Dr. R. Evan Ellis
The end of the year is traditionally a time in Latin America and the Caribbean for cherishing the memories of the year gone by and looking forward with hope and well-wishes for the coming year. This is not that article.
2024 is likely to be a year of significant challenges for the region and for the US, which is directly and immediately affected by its conditions through economic interdependence, geography and family.
Latin America is increasingly connected to events and conditions in the broader global environment, through ties of commerce and financial markets, the functionality (and dysfunction) of global political institutions, the flow of people and ideas, and interest by a range of state and non-state extra-hemispheric actors in the region.
In 2024, Latin America and the Caribbean will be affected, largely negatively, by the likely expansion of conflicts beyond the region, as well as by an increasingly confident, aggressive posture by illiberal actors external to the region, pursuing agendas involving authoritarian and other partners within it.
The U.S. has seldom faced a set of reinforcing challenges from Latin America and the Caribbean like it will face in 2024, potentially impacting the U.S. through commercial interdependence, migration, criminal dynamics, and other security challenges. In facing such grave challenges, the U.S. has seldom been more impeded from an effective response, than with the current confluence of 2024 national elections, political polarization, resource constraints, and competing international demands.
The potentially disastrous confluence of outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean described in this work are not pre-determined. The combination of impactful, but hard-to-predict individual events, the effects of interacting dynamics, and the initiative of individual leaders will all shape outcomes in ways difficult to anticipate herein. Nonetheless, the possible trajectory for the region identified in this work should raise significant concern for U.S. political and commercial decision-makers. Whatever the outcome, through its bonds to the region from geography, commerce and family, the U.S. will be profoundly impacted by the consequences.
Article originally published by Florida International University and republished by Expediente Abierto with permission from the Author.
